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Military rises to the fore
Syed Saleem Shahzad
Flood devastation has
affected approximately 20 million Pakistanis,
destroyed infrastructure and left the frontline
American ally in the war against al-Qaeda in a
vulnerable state. At the same time, the Taliban-led
insurgency is spreading to northern Afghanistan, with
the potential to create trouble in the nearby Central
Asian republics.
As a result,
Washington is moving towards a new plan that involves
regional players. Primarily, this centres on Russia,
in cooperation with the United States, coming up with
a regional security plan to look after Central Asia
and northern Afghanistan.
In tandem, it is
envisaged that the military in Pakistan will be given
clear empowerment so that it can play an effective
role in countering the anticipated chaos as the flood
waters finally start to recede.
The floods have
changed the dynamics of the American war in
Afghanistan. The devastated areas include restive
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, southern Punjab, Sindh
province and parts of Balochistan.
In dealing with the
massive humanitarian crisis, the military has had to
shelve all operations against militant and al-Qaeda
bases in the tribal areas on the border with
Afghanistan, as well as in southern Punjab.
The flood has
destroyed huge swathes of crops and dragged Pakistan
into a serious quagmire, yet the international
community, which provided US$6 billion after an
earthquake in 2005, has only come up with $80 million
in cash and about $60 million in kind for the
rehabilitation of over 20 million people, according to
the Economic Affairs Division. (Three million people
were affected by the earthquake.
It will take many
months for people to rebuild their shattered lives,
let alone their homes, and the last thing on their
minds will be supporting the American war. On the
other hand, the deluge has created ideal conditions
for the Taliban to mount a major recruitment drive.
According to the
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),
Pakistan, with 1.7 million Afghan refugees, has one of
the world's largest refugee populations. More than 1.5
million of these people live in flood-affected
provinces and they have suffered badly. In Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province alone more than 12,000 dwellings
in refugee villages have been swept away, leaving
almost 70,000 people homeless.
"There is no way for
the Afghan refugees other than to go back to their
native regions in Afghanistan because in the present
plight Pakistan has prioritised its citizens." A
United Nations official told Asia Times Online on
condition of anonymity. "It is planned that land that
was being used for refugee camps will be used to
shelter homeless Pakistanis."
Most of the refugees
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa hail from the eastern Afghan
provinces of Ghazni, Logar, Laghman and Nagarhar. In
many of these districts the Taliban run their own
administrations - and even their own revenue systems.
The UNHCR has confided
that thousands of refugees have returned home, but
admits it has not been able to track their movements.
It can be expected that many of these impoverished
returnees will be enticed to join the Taliban.
In recent months, the
insurgency has picked up pace in the eastern border
provinces of Nagarhar, Kunar and Khost, where
casualties among American troops and their allies in
the Afghan National Army have soared to new heights.
In the past five days
alone, 25 Americans have died. The number of US
soldiers killed in 2010 is the highest annual toll
since the conflict began almost nine years ago. A
total of 323 US soldiers have been killed this year,
compared to 317 for all of 2009.
Troubled tribal areas
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's
infrastructure has all but collapsed and the civilian
administration is non-existent; the crisis is being
dealt with by the military.
Militants are taking
full advantage of the situation and gradually
returning after leaving the area following military
operations over the past years. In the absence of
bridges and roads, it is not possible for the military
to chase them - even if they had the time.
In the past few days,
militants have carried out targeted attacks against
their rivals in tribal council meetings and
individually. According to Mian Iftikhar Hussain, the
minister of information of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, all of
the top leaders of the Awami National Party (ANP) that
governs the province have received death threats and
security has been beefed up around them.
In Karachi, from where
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) supplies go
to Afghanistan, all kinds of political, ethnic and
sectarian clashes continue and on a daily basis at
least five to 10 people are killed.
At this juncture, the
Taliban are looking to apply a forward strategy in
northern Afghanistan and in
Central Asia to stir up
rebellions. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is once
again active in the Farghana
Valley and is believed to be the main engine in many of the recent incidents of
violence in different Central Asian states.
A Russian alliance
"The Americans don't
have a policy for immediate withdrawal. Even if they
withdraw in the future, they will keep their troops in
northern Afghanistan," Professor Walter Russell Mead,
a prominent American academic, told Asia Times Online
while on a recent visit to Pakistan.
"There is cooperation
between Russia and the US on Afghanistan and it will
grow," says Mead, senior fellow for US foreign policy
at the Council on Foreign Relations and the James
Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and
Humanities at Bard College.
"In future we [the US]
will deal with all terror threats in the region with
collective efforts. Russia is in big trouble these
days. Its economy is in shambles. The Muslim
population is outnumbering the Slavic population. As a
result, the liberation movement in the Northern
Caucuses is strengthening. The US aims to provide all
sorts of support to Russia and in return the Russians
are supporting American interests in
Afghanistan," Mead said.
However, this
cooperation is not sufficient to break the siege in
and around Afghanistan - the most important deal is to
be signed in Pakistan with the army.
The US's strategy has
been to limit the power of the military in
Pakistan; this led to the
civilian government of President Asif Ali Zardari
following years of military rule under General Pervez
Musharraf, who stepped down in 2008.
The floods, however,
have washed away this facade. At the height of the
disaster, Zardari was traveling around Europe, and the
military stepped in, particularly in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa where the ANP seemed helpless.
In Sindh, ministers
and lawmakers of the powerful ruling Pakistan People's
Party (PPP) are said to have diverted flood water to
save their farms, while inundating others. Former
prime minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali and other Baloch
leaders claimed that Sindh leaders of the PPP flooded
their towns and villages.
The Pakistani media
showed footage of how influential people saved their
properties and farms at the expense of theirs - the
flood has exposed the divide between the elite and the
downtrodden.
Faced with the
tarnished image of politicians and a potential sharp
rise in militancy, Washington realises the military is
the only institution capable of confronting future
threats. This does not mean the imposition of martial
law or a coup. Rather, the military will be encouraged
to make use of article 190 of the constitution under
which the judiciary can urge the military to intervene
in crises on a case-by-case basis. |
